5 Positve Regression Candidates 2020
As much as we all love touchdowns in fantasy football, that's not a good reason to chase them. Instead, chase yardage. Yardage is the most translatable stat from year to year. I will preach this until I'm blue in the face. Yardage breeds touchdowns. Yardage breeds touchdowns.Yardage breeds touchdowns. Yardage breeds touchdowns.
If you don't get the point, read paragraph one again.
Jordan wrote an article about players who will not repeat their performances from last year, and that inspired me to write this one.
Players that will improve on their TD totals from last year.
- Leonard Fournette
Let's be honest, Fournette was a monster last year. His usage was incredible. I have stated before, he was Diet CMC. He had the 7th most rushes (265) and 100 targets. (4th most per game for RBs) Huge load… He had the 2nd largest snap share out of all RBs at 88%. Only behind, you guessed it, Christian McCaffrey. But, he only managed to score 3 times. This is ridiculous and will not stay this way moving forward. I can see a decline in usage as a whole because the Jaguars have to do something in free agency or the draft to spell him. Bottom line, the guy who was near the top of almost every RB category, should not be 44th ranked at scoring touchdowns. Look for him to improve on his total of 3 in 2020. (Triple)
Andy fucking Dalton had more rushing scores than him 😂
I know it's tough, because you hate Odell. "Hes a drama king. I drafted him with my first round pick!" I know, I know. He burnt you, just like my ex wife. But guys, he has been at the top of the league for a while. He has one bad year on a new team, and now you hate him? Look, he had 133 targets, averaged 95 percent of Cleveland’s snaps, and played through injury for most of the year. He was only able to corral 74 receptions on a career-low 56 percent catch rate. Only four touchdowns, which was tied for 47th among wide receivers. When a guy is 12th in wide receiver targets, he's usually in that range of touchdowns as well. He's going to bounce it back harder than J-Lo and Shakira at the Super Bowl.
Kyler Murray was great as a rookie and he will improve???
20 passing touchdowns and 4 on the ground. As stated in my previous article, he now holds many rookie franchise records. Let's see where this goes.
He had the 9th most passing attempts in the league. That doesn't translate with his 20 passing touchdowns, which ranked 23rd among starting quarterbacks. The Cardinals were ranked 29th in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage.
He had 93 rush attempts and only scored 4 times??? That also doesn't translate. When compared to other quarterbacks with 75 or more rushes, Murray he ranked as one of the lowest quarterbacks in terms of touchdown percentage per rush. Not to mention, the Arizona backfield combined for 14 touchdowns in 2019, some of those touchdowns will go to Murray next season. Watch this strawberry shortcake take the NFL by sandstrom this year.
Jordan thinks Cooper Kupp regresses negatively next year, and I agree. But, Robert Woods has no choice but to rise in the TD category. Here's why and it's simple.
He only scored 2 touchdowns in 2019 but he had career-highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns in only 15 games. He finished as the WR19 in PPR. His 139 targets (8th most) and 67 snaps played per game (2nd most) among wide receivers. 2 receiving TDs were the fewest among wide receivers with 100+ targets. Look for that number to triple as well.
Who doesn't love a player named Deebo? A bully with the ball. Deebo is primed for a fantastic sophomore season. "But Joey, he had 6 tuttys last year." I would say that's accurate. But 3 were rushing scores. And he did that on 14 carries.
Lets take a dive into his recieving stats.
Despite having the 37th-most receptions among wideouts, he only caught the 57th-most touchdowns. He was tied with George Kittle for the most red-zone targets on his team and ranked 12th among all wide receivers in red zone targets.
He brought in 9 of his 17 red-zone targets, but he was only able to get one across the goal line, and we all know how electric this dude is with the ball in his hands. He averaged 4 targets per game in his first eight games, but jumped to six targets per game in his final eight and playoffs, not counting the 9 in Super Bowl. I see this trend continuing.
The following players should see an increase in their touchdown totals from last year, as they all have very similar trends as the guys above. Some more drastic than others, but dont avoid these players in you draft because of their performances last year…..
THAT WAS LAST YEAR!
While others are down on these guys, you will be able to get great values in the draft. So take advantage of your opportunity, as these guys will for your fantasy team in 2020.
- Mike Williams
- Darren Waller
- Mike Gesicki
- Saquon Barkley
- LeVeon Bell
- Miles Sanders
- Joe Mixon
- DJ Moore
- Davante Adams
- Christian Kirk
And I hate to say it, but
- Jared Goff