Buffalo Bills Fantasy Breakdown
The Buffalo Bills actually have a very talented team that shouldn’t be overlooked. As far as fantasy football goes they don’t have any top of the line stars but let’s take a position by position look into the value of the 2020 Buffalo Bills.
Offseason additions: WR Stefon Diggs, RB Taiwan Jones, RB Zack Moss (R), WR Gabriel Davis (R), QB Jake Fromm (R), K Tyler Bass (R), WR Isaiah Hodgins (R).
Offseason subtractions: RB Frank Gore, RB Senorise Perry.
Quarterback: Former 7th overall draft choice Josh Allen was a fantasy stud in 2019, finishing as the QB #6. His many turnovers are a problem but his rushing ability more than makes up for his fumbling issues. He scored 9 touchdowns on the ground last season to go along with an impressive 510 yards on 109 rush attempts. Allen’s production through the air improved dramatically from his rookie campaign. He threw for 3,089 yards and 20 touchdowns which wasn’t great but he has an upgraded weapon arsenal and should continue to make strides. An ADP of #73 is a pretty good bargain for last season’s QB #6 who has tremendous upside.
Running Back: The departure of veteran Frank Gore seemed to indicate that Devin Singletary would be in line for an increased workload but then Buffalo selected Zack Moss in the 3rd round. GM Brandon Beane has stated that Moss will play a role similar to the one that Gore had. That certainly lowers Singletary’s upside. Gore had 179 touches averaging 12.5 carries a game last season as well as ranking 12th among RBs in carries inside the five-yard-line. If Moss does get a similar workload he could easily be an RB #3 running behind this offensive line. With a current ADP of #146 Moss could be an epic steal even if his ADP rises significantly. Singletary doesn’t have a very high ceiling thanks to moss but he does have a very high floor. This offense runs the ball so often (6th most) that Singletary will get a good amount of work even if Moss has a large role. An ADP of #48 is fairly high considering he’ll most likely be splitting work with Moss. I like Singletary as a RB #3 but he needs to be more involved in the passing game to live up to that ADP. T.J. Yeldon was an afterthought last season and most likely won’t make it onto the field much, if at all.
Wide Receiver: Buffalo made a big move trading for star receiver Stefon Diggs this offseason, as exciting as it was, that move was pretty rough as far as fantasy football goes. Diggs is a legit receiver that has shown he has the abilities to be a solid WR #1. I’m afraid that he’ll now be just an inconsistent WR #2. This team is built around dominant defense and the running game. This isn’t the type of offense that will have two consistent fantasy receivers and the fact that they have three very talented ones makes matters even worse. Diggs will have his big games but I can easily see him having way too many games with just a couple catches. An ADP of #66 is a fairly steep price for a newcomer in a run first offense where he’s competing for targets with two very capable receivers in Brown and Beasley. I’m avoiding Diggs in my drafts unless he falls which is unlikely. John Brown had a great first season in Buffalo finishing as the WR #20 despite missing a game. He had a solid stat line of 72/1060/6 on 115 targets. He was a stud for fantasy owners last season considering how much of a bargain he was. Diggs obviously hurts Brown and will keep him from reaching that production again but an ADP of #117 is a steal when you realize that it’s over 50 spots lower than that of Diggs. I like Brown as a mid to late round value pick and can see him finishing in the WR #3 range. Former Cowboy Cole Beasley had a quietly good fantasy season in 2019 putting up very similar numbers to Brown but just fewer yards. He was a low end WR #3 and finished less than 30 PPR points behind Diggs in the same amount of games. Beasley won’t get enough work anymore to warrant a draft pick unless you’re in a deep PPR league. I don’t advise spending a draft pick on the 3rd receiver in this run heavy offense no matter how talented he is so I’m not gonna get into the depth chart at this position.
Tight End: The Bills simply don’t pass the ball often enough for a Tight End to be fantasy relevant. Dawson Knox had a solid rookie season but the acquisition of Diggs is sure to take up a good deal of targets making Knox just a streaming option in deeper leagues. Former Bengal Tyler Kroft would be next in line for TE duties.
Defense: This is one of the better defenses in the league and should continue to be in the fantasy D/ST conversation. They finished at #12 among their position but were quite a bit better than that down the stretch. Loaded with veteran talent and young studs this could be one of the best defenses this year especially for fantasy purposes. They start off with a soft schedule so that is extra appealing in drafts for the matchup guys.
Usually a team’s top stars have fewer question marks for fantasy but I see the Bills a little differently than I see most teams because in my opinion their stars in Diggs and Singletary are both overvalued at their current ADPs and have some serious competition at their position. They’ll definitely be solid performers but the risk outweighs the reward for me with these two. Brown and Moss have great value and I think they could both be great mid to late round picks. Allen has some nice upside and a fairly high floor, if he can continue to improve he could be even more of a fantasy stud.