Players to Avoid Based on ADP: Rounds 1-3

In rounds 1-3 these are the players that are in the main event of your league. These players are the foundational pieces of your team and you want to minimize risk in these rounds. We here at Truth Serum Football want to give you the best guidance possible to avoid making a draft-day mistake. We are not saying avoid these players entirely, but we are saying don't be buying these at their current average draft position. (these are all based on 12 team, half-PPR, 1 QB leagues.

Round 1

Joey- Nick Chubb (current ADP overall 12, RB 8)

Nick Chubb was number 2 in rushing in 2019 with a career mark of 1494 yards. He was an absolute beast in2019. We have seen his ceiling and Nick Chubb also capped out last year when Kareem Hunt returned from his 10 game suspension. Look for more of the same in 2020. Hunt will get the Lions' share out of the backfield and dare I say there is a chance he starts to eat into more of Chubb's rushing attempts as well. Joey says "I would rather have a player of Kenyan Drakes upside early on over Nick Chubb."

Jordan- Derrick Henry (current ADP overall 7, RB6)

Good old' King Henry. Tennesee Titans could lean more on throwing the ball than they did in the past; that could kill a lot of what makes Derrick Henry so great. Derrick Henry wears out Defenses with his constant pounding with the rock. His ball catching skills are very limited and he is rarely used in that compacity. Game script is another reason to be down on Henry, as Tennesee is not going to be playing as many games with the lead.

Round 2

Joey- Lamar Jackson overall 17, QB1  (Patrick Mahomes overall 19, QB2) (Travis Kelce overall 18, TE1)(George Kittle overall 20, TE2 )

Joey is avoiding all Quarterbacks and Tight ends this early in drafts. Not that he's not a fan of some of these players but he refuses to pay this price point at their ceiling. There is plenty of other value in this range and Joey would rather focus on his roster construction here. If you are a believer at taking one of these Quarterbacks this early more power to you, but there is no way we should be drafting these players this early with as close as most of them finish anyway. Quarterbacks don't give you a true edge in fantasy. Tight Ends however can give you a true edge, but only at their position only. This year more than ever it seems like the tight end landscape might be deeper than ever.

Jordan- Aaron Jones (current ADP overall 15, RB 10)

Aaron Jones is a fade for Jordan here at this average draft position. It is completely understandable to be down on Jones after coming off such a monster season in 2019. Jones finished 2019 as the RB 2 overall in all of fantasy last season, but that was also on the back of 19 total touchdowns. I would not necessarily fade Aaron Jones completely, but there is virtually no way he's hitting that mark again. Regression is coming for Aaron Jones. He very well could be a dud for your fantasy team if he is taken as your RB1.

Round 3

Joey- Melvin Gordon (current ADP overall 34, RB 17)

Melvin Gordon Signed with the Denver Broncos at the start of free agency for two years, 16 million dollars. He missed most of the 2019 campaign due to his holdout, but we have seen Ekeler most weeks still outperform Gordon in his last year with the Los Angeles Chargers. Could we see the same situation unfold for him in Denver? It is most definitely a possibility. Phillip Lindsay is still there and he has been great since arriving in the league via an undrafted free agent in 2018. Lindsay is still the man there and in my eyes. It will be closer to a 50/50 split more than most people think it could be. The Denver Broncos did not pay Gordon the type of money that screams you're a workhorse and even if they did we've seen how that's played out on more than one occasion with his former squad.

Jordan-  Amari Cooper (current ADP overall 26, WR 9)

Yes, we get it. Amari Cooper is great when he is great and when he is a trainwreck he is a complete (Pyle)…See what I did there. Amari has always shown a great ability to have these huge monster games that can secure you weeks in fantasy, but his downside has always been his consistency. 2019, a lot of that could have been from him being banged up, but he is just the player that some do not want to roll the dice on due to his inconsistent play. Cooper could also lose a little bit of that extra volume this year if Michael Gallup continues to ascend. CeeDee Lamb could also come out of the gate and be one of Dak Prescott's top targets in that offense. Cooper will still have these monster weeks here and there.

Yes. He will see most teams #1 corner as well and that will give these other receivers the opportunity needed to take away from Cooper's maximum upside in Dallas in 2020