Welcome back to the TSF Round Table where the guys at Truth Serum Football are joined by our guest David Davis! The Regular Season is just around the corner and as always we're here to answer some questions. Have a question you want us to answer at next week’s Round Table discussion? Drop it in a comment below.
- Now that Travis Etienne is out of the picture where do you rank James Robinson for PPR redraft formats?
Travis: With the Etienne news which was unfortunate and hope he makes a full recovery I moved James Robinson to my 20th running back. Carlos Hyde could still steal plenty of red zone carries from Robinson, but in now way is Robinson getting near the same type of workload he received in 2020.
Pyankker: He’s a top 10 RB, I mean I already had him ranked at like RB15 with Etienne since Etienne was gonna be used more often in the slot.
Jimmy: I'd say any redraft going on after the injury, Robinson can be an RB2 with RB1 upside.
Anthony: 1. I would put Robinson around RB18 with Etienne going down. I think people copy and pasting his performance from last season are going to be mistaken. I expect the offense overall to be slightly better than last year with Trevor Lawrence but honestly not by much. Plus Robinson was getting anywhere from 85-100% of the RB snaps last season where your normal work horses like Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, etc. typically see 65-70% at best. I imagine that number will come down for Robinson since Urban Meyer’s old buddy Carlos Hyde is in town. Hyde isn’t a threatening back the same way Etienne was but I could easily see him getting a solid amount of touches. Hyde has averaged 4.4 yards per carry the last two seasons and rushed for over 1,000 just two years ago with the Texans. Plus the wild card of Urban Meyer gives me some pause. I would take Robinson over guys in the Dobbins, Sanders, Jacobs tier since he should be the primary ball carrier but I can’t take him any higher than that. Guys like Chris Carson and David Montgomery are the unquestioned work horses in what should be better offenses.
David: Travis Etienne going down was horrible however I don’t believe he would have impacted Robinson that much. Etienne was taking a lot of snaps at wide receiver and was most looking to fill that 3rd down role. Robinson I think will finish top 12-15 easy. I was not very high on him last year but boy did he prove me wrong!
- What do you think Corey Davis’ ceiling is for 2021?
Travis: I don’t think it’s unreasonable that his ceiling is top 20 as we did finally see him flash in 2020. I said it and am going to continue to say it. Don’t be scared off by the Jets as I truly believe this is a team on the uprise. The defense should still be near the bottom, but really intriguing is what Zach Wilson, Elijah Moore, and Michael Carter can provide. With a team that most likely is going to have to depend on throwing the ball to stay in games; is that Davis is the number one option in this offense. He would receive plenty of volume and if that’s the case he could provide a big unexpected boon for your fantasy team.
Pyankker: I think it’s gonna be his best year, Zach Wilson seems to really like him and that will really benefit him.
Jimmy: Corey Davis is going to be Zach Wilson's security blanket as the veteran WR1. I think he's a solid WR2-3.
Anthony: 2. If we’re looking for Corey Davis’s absolute, best case scenario I think it’s somewhere between WR8-10. The Jets don’t project to be a high scoring offense this season. They’re the second biggest long shot to lead the NFL in scoring with +15000. One spot ahead of the Texans. The Jets don’t project to be a monster producer in the passing game either. Zach Wilson has the 19th best odds to lead the NFL in passing at +6500. Both of these statistics make me believe Davis most likely won’t be an elite WR1 this season. However as I laid out in a recent WR article, volume trumps all for WRs. Granted Elijah Moore hasn’t played yet, but Corey Davis has been targeted on 10 out of 13 routes run so far this preseason. Zach Wilson seems to have a connection with Davis and so far looks willing to push the ball down the field. The Jets made Davis one of their first FA signings so he was a big priority this off-season and I think he’ll have a major role in the offense. I can see Davis being a poor man’s version of Allen Robinson this year. Robinson is obviously more proven, but both will be the #1 WR on sub par offenses that command a big amount of targets. I think Davis could realistically see 120-130 targets this season and if things break his way I can see him sneak into the bottom half of the Top 10 as a ceiling.
David: Corey Davis is an interesting wide receiver to watch. He goes from being in the shadow of AJ Brown to having a chance to claim that number one spot. However his ceiling will only be as high as rookie quarterback Zack Wilson will push it!
- Over or under 9.5 wins for the Vikings?
Travis: I’m going to take the under here as I don’t truly expect the Vikings to be a real great team on both sides of the ball. I get that Cousins is a serviceable quarterback and what we seen from Justin Jefferson was spectacular last season. Don’t forget about Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen, but for some reason or another it just doesn’t make sense to me to see this team at 10 wins. The defense should be better, but I think there are still many holes and that secondary beyond Harrison Smith is suspect at best in my opinion. I wish I could hype up the Vikings fans as we have many friends that are, but I’m all about that Bear Down Life! (Sorry Colleen Kounkel)
Pyankker: I’m going to say under as that division has so many question marks, what will Fields do? Will Rodgers come back with a vengeance? What will Goff do?
Jimmy: I think the Vikings will finish 2nd or 3rd in their division. I can see them winning anywhere from 7-10 games. Based on that I'll take the under.
Anthony: 3. I’m going to take the under on 9.5 for the Vikings. I’ve looked through multiple sports books and the highest win total projection I can find for the Vikings is 9. So it seems Vegas would put them under 9.5 this season. The Vikings have the 27th ranked offensive line according to PFF. They made significant upgrades this off-season via the draft and free agency but we have to see how things actually play out on the field. PFF also ranks the Vikings defense middle of the pack. I like the weapons the Vikings have with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Theilen and Irv Smith Jr. but it’s tough to look past their subpar offensive line and defense. Plus they play in a division that doesn’t look extremely challenging but won’t be a cake walk either. The Packers have made it to back to back NFC Championship games and return Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones. Both players were up in the air regarding their return this off-season but the Packers signed Aaron Jones to come back another year and did enough to get Aaron Rodgers back in town. The Bears aren’t a powerhouse team but every sports book I see has them around 7.5-8 wins. They’ll be a tough team to go against with a solid defense and rookie Justin Fields could provide a much needed spark to the offense if/when he gets the start. The Lions project to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. I’m taking the under on 9.5 wins for the Vikings this season
David: Now I’m going to be considered bias on this but I believe it’s over 9.5 wins for the Minnesota Vikings. Look, last year Kirk Cousins had his best year as a Viking and that came after a slow start. Dalvin Cook can easily be the best running back in the nfl or in the conversation and the emergence of Justin Jefferson and the year after year output from Adam Thielen, the offense ranked top 10. I believe the Defense saw the upgrades it needed from Patrick Peterson to Xavier Woods to Richardson and now most recently Everson Griffen. This Defense will cause problems! Well I hope.
- Who’s your top “buy” right now for dynasty formats?
Travis: A few guys I’m trying to buy on the cheap right now have to be Henry Ruggs, Zack Moss, Chase Edmonds, Bryan Edwards, and also go out and if you have the ability to withstand the hit trade(meaning you have extra draft picks in the bag) a 2022 1st for Cam Akers or Travis Etienne for a 2nd could be a decent move to make. With all of that being said my top buy right now is still Henry Ruggs and a lot of people might be willing to swap him for a second round pick.
Pyankker: I’m buying on a few guys that most are likely Undrafted or late rd picks, Bryan Edwards is one guy who has been talked about a lot by his coaches as doing great! My other buy is Felipe Franks to hold onto for when Matt Ryan leaves which I could see being in the next year or two.
Jimmy: I think Alvin Kamara is going to have a monster year with Winston (or Hill) at QB. Especially PPR formats. He's durable and can be all over the field. He's been taken at 3rd overall in most mocks and drafts I've done, and I'd feel safe picking him 1st or 2nd overall in PPR formats.
Anthony: 4. I’ll go with a deeper cut here and mention Gabriel Davis as a player I’m trying to get on all of my dynasty rosters. I’m a huge fan of Davis even in redraft leagues this year and think his future outlook is even brighter. He’s a big bodied WR at 6’2” 216 and had a breakout age of 19.4 which was in the 79th percentile. He had a strong sophomore season at UCF with over 800 yards and put up elite numbers his junior year with over 1200 yards and 12 TDs. Davis’ 2.07 yards of average separation last season ranked 13th in the NFL and his 2.21 fantasy points per target ranked 12th in the NFL. He only ran 26 routes per game last season, 43rd in the NFL, so the opportunity for his usage to expand is absolutely there. Emmanuel Sanders is only with the Bills for 2021 and will be a free agent after this season. Cole Beasley, while they don’t compete in the same area of the field, can be cut next season and save the Bills 3.5mm in cap. Without getting political, Beasley’s somewhat distracting Twitter tirades about the vaccine could create a reason in the back of the Bills’ mind as well to let the receiver go a little early. Plus Beasley will be 33. Davis will most likely never overtake Stefon Diggs as the #1 WR for Buffalo, but on a team that passed the ball almost 600 times last season, and tied to one of the best young QBs in the game, I think Davis has immense potential going forward to become the #2 option for Josh Allen and become a staple in future years as a WR2 for fantasy.
David: Normally you want to find that Gem and in a quarterback but listen, Justin Jefferson broke every rookie wide receiver record recorded! That was done in a year with no pre-season and no real off-season due to the pandemic. Jefferson is special. His precise route running, the ability to high point a ball as well as leave his man behind him. Some time very soon I think Jefferson enters the talks of top 3 wide receiver in the NFL!
- What rookie QBs have you been most impressed by and disappointed in so far this preseason?
Travis: Impressed: Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones
Disappointed: Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance
These are just my general feelings and what position they got drafted is weighted in. I have all the faith in the world and love every single one of these quarterbacks to a degree. You see traits in every one of them to be special and there are even a couple of guys I like long term beyond the first round such as Feleipe Franks and Kyle Trask could also be nice surprises down the road if they ever get a true chance to shine.
Pyankker: I’ve been saying it and I’m sticking to it, Zach Wilson is that guy! He's showing why he was taken at #2. Mac Jones is another one who is impressing me. Justin Fields is less than Impressive and so far Lawrence is not living up to the hype.
Jimmy: I've honestly been very impressed with Justin Fields. I think he's played great games and he'll take the starting job over Dalton very early on.
There hasn't been a rookie QB I can honestly say I'm disappointed in. I guess it would be Lawrence because of the #1 pick hype.
Anthony: 5. In all honesty I’ve been very impressed by all 5 of the top rookie QBs so far in their young careers. Trevor Lawrence had so much hype coming into the league and has looked OK so far in the pre-season. Nothing spectacular in my opinion but a prospect of that level should at the very least have a solid career and while he might not take Jacksonville to new heights this season I think a bright future is ahead for Lawrence. Fantasy wise I’m staying away from Lawrence because there are other rookie QBs who offer more in the running game which is a cheat code for QBs. Probably some bias here as a Jets fan, but I’ve been very impressed with what Zach Wilson has shown thus far. He isn’t afraid to throw the ball downfield and has made some really nice throws in tight windows that make me optimistic as a fan. His mobility is a plus for fantasy owners and he’s the only other QB alongside Lawrence that you know for sure will start all 16 games barring injury. Mac Jones has also had a very strong pre-season and rumblings from beat writers seem to believe Jones will be the Patriots starting QB sooner than later. Jones offers almost nothing on the ground but has shown pin point accuracy so far and seems to have command of the offense. Justin Fields has shown ability as both a passer and a runner in pre-season and bounced right back up after taking a brutal hit against the Bills. People should respect his toughness and while Matt Nagy seems hellbent on starting Andy Dalton, I don’t think it’s long before we see Fields under center in Chicago. If I had to pick one QB who would fall under the disappointment category it would be Trey Lance. Don’t hear what I’m not saying though. I think Lance is immensely talented and offers incredible upside with his rushing ability. Unfortunately we just haven’t seen the rushing from Lance yet in pre-season. Twitter exploded after Lance hit a wide open WR for a monster TD in his first pre-season game, and while the arm strength was very impressive, the WR was basically wide open. Lance appeared in only one game last season so some cobwebs are to be expected, and I know the 49ers have had a high amount of drops in the pre-season, but 13 for 28 so far raises a bit of a red flag. I still think Lance is a great talent and is built for the modern NFL but a lot of his highlights in college, and even so far in pre-season, we’re to wide open receivers so I question his ability to hit tight window throws in the NFL.
David: So I’ll give Zack Wilson a shout out (just for beating Green Bay) He’s handled the dumpster fire pretty well. The rookie QB I’m most impressed with has been Trey Lance. He has shown the ability to be the best QB taken in this draft. I’ve seen him make laser throws, to soft touch passes, to bombs down the field. I see a better, more athletic Dak Prescott in Lance. I’m still waiting for Trevor Lawrence to show why he was taken number 1 overall.
That’s it for this week guys. Thanks for reading and as always, stay true.