Round Table Week 7

Week 7 of the NFL season is here! We have a great slate of games and a ton of teams on Bye week. As the NFL season continues to kick things into overdrive we are here to provide you insights into the league from some of our favorite brands and analysts. Joining our staff today are special guests: 

Gladys Tyler - Going For 2 Live - @gladysLtyler

Adam Hulse - Sports Talk with Adam - @AdamHulseSports

Nat Guilford - So You Think You’re a GM? - @ReesRebel31

Justin Kirkland - Truth Serum Football - @truthserumff

Patrick Sweeney - Fantasy Football Therapist - @FtballTherapist

lineups.com

 

Both the Buccanneers and Packers came into week 6 as heavy favorites but both played poorly and ended the week at 3-3 overall. Which team do you think has the best chance to turn things around and make a run in the second half of the season? 

Gladys Tyler - Going For 2 Live- 

This seems an easy answer, the Buccaneers, and not because of Tom Brady but because of his cache of weapons. Mike Evans has a 45.5% end zone target share and a 26.8% air yard share. He is 21st in Pro Football Focus' receiving grade and 20th in yards per route run. Chris Godwin is returning to full health, and last week, he had 12 targets, six receptions, and 95 receiving yards on 36 routes. And Leonard Fournette has dominated without Brady's full complement of players. Fournette has 95 carries, but he also has 36 targets (third most amount RB) and 17 red zone touches. It also helps that they play in the NFC South, where their 3-3 record has them tied for first place.

Unlike the Packers, whose 3-3 record has them firmly behind the Minnesota Vikings at 5-1.

Aaron Rodgers is still looking for his man. Alan Lazard and Romeo Doubs are 1a and 1b with 77.75% and 77.25% average snap counts, but that hasn't resulted in production, and we have yet to have a reason to believe it will. The running back tandem that made everyone giddy in the preseason is falling, and in fact, AJ Dillion is seeing slightly more than 50% of the offensive snaps and, in the last three games, had less than 15 receiving yards and 75 rushing yards.

There is no reason to be scared of either offense just yet. But with Halloween around the corner, the Packers appear to be the ones who will most likely ghost your fantasy and their post-season hopes. (Cheesy, I know, but I could not resist).

Adam Hulse - Sports Talk with Adam - 

I wasn't particularly high on the Packers before the season and they have confirmed my suspicions so far. As great as Aaron Rodgers is, not even he's immune to offensive regression due to losing Davante Adams. Unless they add a significant receiver, I'm definitely out on the Packers this year. The Buccaneers have a much better shot to get back on track in my opinion. As long as they can get healthy, they have a pretty favorable schedule the rest of the way. Their SOS currently ranks as the third easiest in the NFL following Week 6. 

Nat Guilford - So You Think You’re a GM?- 

The Bucs, although I think it’s closer than people think.

Justin Kirkland - Truth Serum Football

It’s a health thing for Tampa.  Offensive line concerns aside, Brady will get it done with a healthy Evans, Godwin, and Fournette.  Bowles and Brady can scheme away from whichever parts of the o-line aren’t playing well.  I think GB has more of an identity crisis.  The passing game is clearly missing Adams and the sum of talent between Watson, Doubs, and Lazard has not been able to match what they’ve lost.  Without passing game consistency, the 2 headed monster of Jones and Dillon doesn’t create a change of pace. GB just feels disjointed at this point. 

Patrick Sweeney -  Fantasy Football Therapist

For me, it is the Bucs. Both defensively have looked good. Both are top 7 in yards allowed with the Bucs being top 5 in ppg allowed. Green Bay has been exploited on the ground allowing 135 rush yards per game which is a concern. Offensively I do not trust the Packers receivers right now. Cobb got banged up last game and he was looking like the guy Rodgers could trust. Having a core led by Evans and Godwin makes me feel more comfortable for the Bucs. The Packers also have a brutal schedule moving forward with the Bills, Eagles, Vikings, Cowboys, Titans, and Rams left. They could miss the playoffs.

thesportsgeek.com

The AFC Beast has been wild. The Jets seem to have found the winning formula behind Breece Hall, the Pats are winning with Bailey Zappe, and the Dolphins are longing to get Tua back under center. Which of these three teams has the best chance to get hot down the stretch and make a playoff run? 

Gladys Tyler - Going For 2 Live- 

New York Jets: Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, Bye Week,

                           New England Patriots

The Jets' next matches are against teams with a combined 13-11 record.

New England Patriots: Chicago Bears, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, Bye Week, New York Jets

Patriots' next four matches against a combined 13-10-1

Miami Dolphins: Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Bye Week

The Dolphins' next four opponents have a combined 8-6 record. Let's be serious. Just by the eye test, the Dolphins have the easier path. They had an offense system that was working pre-concussion, and if Xavien Howard and Byron Jones can get healthy, their secondary is formidable. (Not quite as formidable as the eighth-ranked Jets secondary…but oh well).

Quarterback rankings per NFL.com:

10th Tua Tagovailoa

27th Zac Wilson

28th Bailey Zappe

Breece Hall is good but playing the Patriots twice with the Bills sandwiched in between makes the Jets a feel-good story that will go horribly wrong.

The Patriots are emerging from being a one-dimensional offense, but the Dolphins spanked them in Week1, 7-20 (without Zappe).

The Dolphins in Mike McDaniel's offense and a healthy Tua (and semi-healthy Tua) beat the Bills (21-19), the Baltimore Ravens (42-38), and the Patriots, as mentioned above. If they can keep Tua healthy, I like their chances. 

Adam Hulse - Sports Talk with Adam - 

The Patriots will always be relatively competitive for as long as Bill Belichick is there, but they lack the offensive firepower for me to take them too seriously. The Jets have looked great so far, but I still think they're at least a year away from being true postseason contenders. I'm also not sure if I really trust Zach Wilson yet. Before Tua got hurt, the Dolphins looked like they could potentially be a top 3 offense and top 5 team in the entire NFL all year, and that was just a few games into a brand-new system. As long as Tua can stay healthy, the Dolphins are legitimate playoff contenders. 

Nat Guilford - So You Think You’re a GM?- 

Miami, so long as they have a healthy Tua. 

Justin Kirkland - Truth Serum Football

All 3 of those teams have stingy defenses. I don’t think the Pats have enough of a passing game to balance when they play a tough defense. Miami NEEDS Tua to be and stay healthy to have a shot. If NY can run through Breece and turn Wilson into a game manager to mitigate the risk of him throwing to the other team, the Jets can ride that defense into the playoffs. Breece has been freed and the Jets need to ride that wave for the rest of the season. 

Patrick Sweeney -  Fantasy Football Therapist

Biased answer my Patriots! Unbiased answer: I believe it is the Jets. Their defense looks incredible and offensively Breece hall is looking like the elite back I thought he would. They have continued to grind it out without needing their playmakers on the outside. I do believe both Wilson and Moore can continue to grow with their quarterback. Their schedule is not too difficult and they already have a win over Miami, which is big. As this team continues to develop and hit its stride look for them to take advantage down the stretch and make a playoff run.

facebook.com

 

As we head into the Bye week hell portion of the season it is as important as ever to ensure you have the right pieces on your team. Who is your biggest buy-low candidate and who is your biggest sell-high candidate at this point in the season?

 

Gladys Tyler - Going For 2 Live- 

Buy low: Travis Etienne Jr.: The James Robinson comeback story is glorious and will help you acquire Etienne. Etienne has out-snapped Robinson three weeks in a row and has run six more routes than Robinson in that time. Last week against the Houston Texans, Etienne had 108 total yards to Robinson's 55.

While everyone still believes Robinson "will turn it around," you know that Etienne is about to take over the Jaguars' backfield. Now is the time.

Sell High: Aaron Jones, Green Bay kind of sucks and Matt LeFleur has lost his way. Last week in their 13 drives Jones touched the ball only 12 times. He was fifth on the team in targets and was 17th in targets going into Week6.

He only has one game of 15 or more PPR points.

Before those living in Rodgers and the Packers' past glory awaken, SELL, SELL, SELL. 

Adam Hulse - Sports Talk with Adam - 

Ezekiel Elliot is my favorite buy-low candidate right now. He is already receiving more than 60 percent of the snaps for the Cowboys, despite Tony Pollard doing much more per touch. It just doesn't seem like Zeke will be losing snaps any time soon. He will also continue to get red zone work and that should mean many more scoring opportunities now that Dak Prescott is ready to make his return. As for a sell-high candidate, I'll go with Raheem Mostert. It's just hard for me to imagine him getting much better this year than he has been recently. He also hasn't missed any games this season, which is rare considering his injury history. Now could be the best time to trade him for value, ideally to someone who believes his stock will rise with Tua coming back.

Nat Guilford - So You Think You’re a GM?- 

Sell Najee Harris and Aaron Jones and JT. Buy J Chase, DHop, Waller, L Murray, Kenyan Drake

Justin Kirkland - Truth Serum Football 

Buy Lows: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Aaron Jones, Jonathan Taylor

Sell Highs: Taysom Hill, Brandon Aiyuk, Gabe Davis, Rhamondre Stevenson

Patrick Sweeney -  Fantasy Football Therapist

Tee Higgins for me is a big buy. Two weeks ago owners might have been annoyed he was active and did not play. Just saw Chase finish as the WR 1 on the week while he scores 10 points. I still think his 10 targets and 90% route participation is massive and if he can stay healthy he has top 12 upside. I would be buying this Bengals offense as they start to hit their stride. Sell high for me is Juju Smith-Schuster. Guy had a great output but is only seeing an 18% target share. I would pivot off of him while we can.

thespun.com

Hollywood Brown is likely to miss substantial time due to the injury he sustained Sunday. DeAndre Hopkins will be back this week. Where do you rank him for the rest of the season?

Gladys Tyler - Going For 2 Live- I am currently watching the Cardinals play the Saints on Thursday night, and my friends, it isn't pretty. If Kingsbury stays, nothing good is coming out of that offense, including Hopkins. Oh, wait…Hopkins just caught one sell now. 

Adam Hulse - Sports Talk with Adam - 

DeAndre Hopkins averaged 6.4 targets per game last year with a similar cast of other wide receivers around him that he will join this year. There should be plenty of targets available for Hopkins, especially with Hollywood set to miss at least the next month and probably more. The Cardinals recently acquired Robbie Anderson, but I don't think that will have much impact on Hopkins' role. Hollywood was averaging more than 10 targets per game this season, so Hopkins could potentially step right into a high-volume role. His floor looks pretty high right now and I consider him a WR2 with upside. 

Nat Guilford - So You Think You’re a GM?- 

DHop will probably finish as a top 5 receiver for the rest of the season.

Justin Kirkland - Truth Serum Football

Hopkins is a locked and loaded top-10 WR for the rest of the season.  Much like Keenan Allen in LA, I expect the addition of Hopkins to lead to more consistently sustained drives. The addition of the team’s WR1 allows the rest of the skill position players to return to their intended roles.  It’ll take some time for Murray and Hopkins to sync up completely but I expected his target share to be gigantic from day 1 of his return. 

Patrick Sweeney -  Fantasy Football Therapist

With Brown being sidelined for the next few weeks and the team bringing in Robby Anderson it certainly is an interesting situation in Arizona. I do see him being potentially slow to start his return but after a few weeks, a low-end WR 1 is not out of the question. Consistency week in and week out will be key as the offense as a whole has been questionable. To be a bit safe I will rank him closer to WR 12-15. 

stampedeblue.com

 

The Colt's offense had their best game of the season in week 6 and is finally showing signs of life. What is your outlook for Jonathan Taylor for the rest of the season? 

Gladys Tyler - Going For 2 Live- 

In week six without JT, Matt Ryan attempted 58 passes. That was 11% over expectation. The week before, they were 4% below expectation. Does this impact JT's production for the rest of the season? The Colts are averaging 23.8 rushing attempts per game. That's 22nd in the league. They are 30th in run play percentage at 34.29%.

In the four games he has played,  Taylor has not seen lower than a 69.6% snap share, and even then, he did not carry the ball more than 31 times (that was Week1 with a 74.7% snap share against the Houston Texans)In Week4, against the Tennessee Titans, he was on the field for 84.1% snap share and ran the ball 20 times (with three carries in the red zone.). He was targeted three times (his most targets being 4, again in Week1).

Deon Jackson had famously taken over when JT was unavailable. In Week5 against the Denver Broncos, Jackson was on the field for a 58.9% snap share, ran the ball 13 times, and was on the receiving end of four targets.THEN Week6 against Jacksonville happened. Jackson upped his on-field time to 67.6% of the snap share, and his carries remained relatively the same with 12, BUT he ran 35 routes and was targeted 10 times.

Even in last year's breakout season, Taylor did not see double-digit targets. He has maxed out at seven This is both good and not quite so good for Taylor's outlook. With the "threat" of a passing game, defenders will not have the luxury of stacking the box, which will only help Taylor's elite production. Last season per Pro Football Focus, his 1272 yards after contact was more than the total rushing yards of every running back in the NFL. He had 3.83 yards after contact per attempt and was the third-most of any running back with at least 100 carries. This season in four games, he already has amassed 181 yards created and 24 missed tackles.

This is the long-winded way of saying that Taylor's production (if he can remain healthy) should benefit from a complete offense. He won't be productive in the passing game, but then again, you are counting on his red zone touches (16 so far, 10th among running backs) and his ability to create yards.

If he is healthy, you'll be fine. But be warned, the Colts' next four opponents include Washington (allowing 11th most fantasy points to RB 17.0), NEP (allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the RB 11.2 and has not allowed a rushing touchdown to the running back position), and LVR (ranked 13th in points allowed to RB, 14.2)after this week's matchup with the Titans (who are 11th in points allowed to RB, 14.0). 

Adam Hulse - Sports Talk with Adam - 

I never would have thought we'd be talking about Jonathan Taylor as a potential buy-low candidate before the start of the season, but here we are. While it was never fair to expect JT to repeat his massive 2021 season, I genuinely believe he will get back to being a workhorse as soon as he's healthy again. The Colts went 5-0 last season when JT received at least 25 touches, so they should lean on him if they want to make the playoffs this year. If anyone is selling, I'm buying. 

Nat Guilford - So You Think You’re a GM?- 

JT will have some good games but continue to have disappointing games and will struggle with injury for the rest of the year.

Justin Kirkland - Truth Serum Football

When fully healthy, JT is a locked and loaded top 3 RB.  Proficiency from Ryan and the passing game will mean fewer loaded boxes and more consistently sustained drives. If TNF taught us anything, it’s that Ryan can’t overcome a solid pass rush. A balanced Indy offense will benefit both Ryan and JT.  

Patrick Sweeney -  Fantasy Football Therapist

There is no doubting the talent of Taylor. However, I do have some concerns they lighten the workload even when he returns healthy. Hines will return from his concussion and Jackson was a serviceable pass-catching back. Having two quality receiving backs limits his ceiling in PPR formats. Moving forward I see him more in the 6-10 RB range as a mid-RB 1 to back-end RB 1 moving forward. I'd put Barkley, CMC, Ekeler, Henry, and Chubb all above him to start moving forward. He can be interchanged with several guys behind that as well.