Sunday Morning For A Dynasty Manager
Article 1: “Sunday Morning For a Dynasty Managers”
Sunday mornings for a dynasty manager begin much like they do for someone playing redraft. You scour your lineup to confirm all your starters are active. Maybe you take a glance at the waiver wire to see if someone has panic-dropped a player that you could stash. You begin the inevitable weekly tilt to determine if you should just start your stars or if you should take a chance on a player in a plus matchup.
The obvious departure between thought processes for dynasty and redraft managers begins with the way they perceive the future. While a redraft manager plans for the next several weeks, a dynasty manager plans for the next few years. At several points during any given season, a dynasty manager also needs to consider how competitive they are and whether or not they have a realistic chance to make a deep playoff run.
Understanding your own mentality, as well as that of each of your league mates, is what unlocks the rest of a dynasty manager’s strategy. Are you a win now or a rebuilding team? Your answer to that question will influence how future rookie picks are valued. As you get deeper into the season you begin to see the clear divide between teams moving assets to position themselves for a run and teams soft or actively tanking to position themselves for a better rookie pick.
Trading within dynasty leagues is its own monster. Similar to redraft, it’s pivotal to target outlier performance weeks when trying to acquire or unload players. In addition to in-season performance, a dynasty manager needs to think about how other variables (ex/ player age, contract status, etc.) impact a player’s value. I believe every dynasty manager should operate under the assumption that every player has his price. Dynamic asset value, in addition to several of the other concepts previously mentioned will be further discussed in the coming weeks of this column.
To end this week’s edition, I’ll be going through one of my own dynasty rosters and how I evaluate its quality.
Orphan
2022 record: 4-1
Dynasty / 16-team / S-Flex / PPR / .5 PPR Premium for TE
Roster:
QB: Russel Wilson / Justin Fields
RB: Joe Mixon / J.K. Dobbins / Rhamondre Stevenson / Ezekiel Elliot / Dontrell Hilliard
WR: Mike Evans / Tee Higgins / Michael Pittman / Amon-Ra St. Brown / DeVante Parker / Jalen Reagor
TE: David Njoku / Robert Tonyan / Austin Hooper / Foster Moreau
Picks: 2024 1st / 2025 1st / 2025 3rd
IR: Tim Patrick
Taxi: Jordan Mason / Montrell Washington
At first glance, the clear strengths of the team are the youth and depth in the skill positions. The QB group obviously leaves much to be desired based on the first 5 weeks of the season. While I don’t have a top 5 TE, I’m good with the touchdown upside of both Njoku and Tonyan and playing that roulette game every week. My future draft capital is sparse based on some previous trades I’d made to increase my depth that had been non-existent when I’d taken over the team. At 4-1 to start the season, I’m definitely in the pack to contend for the title this year. Even with that being the case, I’m looking to move both Zeke and Evans before the end of year given their closing windows. While Russ and Fields are both struggling, their respective trade values are at all time lows currently and you’re not fooling anyone into paying a premium at the moment so I’ll just need to hold and even potentially play a RB or WR in the Superflex spot from time to time. Overall this team is in a bit of hold mode although I’d be fine to move my 2024 1st for extra depth at any position. As I’d previously mentioned, the strategy for this team may need to change depending on how the next few weeks play out. You need to stay nimble and ready to act if the opportunity presents itself.
Thank you to the Truth Serum team for giving me the opportunity to write for them once again. I look forward to taking a deep dive into all the facets of dynasty fantasy football in the weeks to come.
Justin Kirkland / Sin City Fantasy Football
Here are a few candidates to buy, sell, and stash.
Trade For Candidate: Rhamondre Stevenson - Stevenson will dominate that backfield while Harris is out with a hamstring and is already a dual threat back in an offense that struggles to push the ball down the field. Harris is on the last year of his deal opening up the backfield to be taken next season.
Trade Away Candidate: Adam Theilen - Theilen has defied the age argument for the last few seasons based on TD production alone. 3 of the first 5 games have seen Theilen under 5 receptions and he’s only scored once this season. Negative TD regression is already happening. Move him to a contender so you’re not stuck with the bag when he completely falls off the production cliff.
Dynasty Stash: Isaiah Likely - As one of the preseason darlings, Likely got a ton of coverage and showed out with his opportunities. While it’ll likely take a serious injury to Andrews to give the rookie a shot at producing this season, Lamar Jackson has clearly shown his preference to target the TE given his mind meld with his current TE1.