The Devil’s Advocate
The Devil’s Advocate
It is that time of week that every fantasy manager dreads. It’s time to explore the ever-important waiver wire! The day in every fantasy gamer’s life that is preceded by a slew of “expert advice” from every corner of the hemisphere that ultimately ends in each of us thinking the same thing: that guy just said what the other guy said.
Well I say it is about time for that to end! Welcome to The Devil’s Advocate! A realistic, honest (and sometimes harsh) look into this week’s contrarian waiver picks so you can make the most of your time, those FAAB budgets, and ultimately grab the players that will ACTUALLY help your team win...IF they even exist this week. We don’t believe in wasting a lot of time here in waiver hell, so here are the top names you will see spread across every “expert’s” “must add” waiver list this week and whether they are truly worth your consideration:
*BLUF = Bottom Line Up Front
BLUF: QB 6, 303 pass yds, 3 TDs no INTs against a bottom tier Bears pass defense
What You’ll Hear: That Mike White is the savior of NY Jets football! (Weren’t they saying that about the Zach Wilson a few weeks back?) One of only 5 QBs in history to post multiple 330+ yds/3TD & 75% better QB rating stat line in their first 4 starts! (Could we add anything else to this stat to stretch him to the only QB in history to…)
Surely we must be looking at the next Tom Brady here, right?
What They Don’t Say: “Multiple games” means 2, and those 2 games (the other being last year versus the Bengals) account for 6 of his 8 career TDs, and 715 of his 958 career passing yardage. Lest we forget he has only 5 NFL games under his belt and started the season in the well-earned QB3 slot. The only reason he was even in there Sunday is because Zach Wilson was essentially put in a timeout.
The Bears defense is ranked 23rd overall, 31st in yds/att, and 18thin pass/yds/gm.
Conclusion: If you’re in contention for a playoff spot, you’ve already skipped over the QB portion of this article. If you’re trying to stream something in a 2 QB league or playing DFS, then White’s next potential game is against Minn who ranks 31stin pass defense and 32nd in both yds/att and pass/yds/gm.
They also have given up more than 21 pts to every QB they’ve faced since week 7 (except Heinicke who got his 2nd highest total of the year)
BLUF: After 8 games, he has 5 under 200 yds, 6 under 15 fantasy points, only 1 with more than 1 TD, 8 Ints to his 3 total TDs. His highest weekly QB finish: 12. Highest Fantasy point total 19.
What You’ll Hear: He is improving.
This is actually a true statement. He had his highest point totals in 2 of the last 3 weeks and hasn’t thrown a pic in 3 games. He is still only averaging a little over 177yds/gm, but I suppose improvement cannot be argued.
What They Don’t Say: Not much really. (I said you’d get honest). He has an upcoming schedule that should allow him to continue to get better and the confidence to keep pushing in the face of likely losses. He certainly is not in any danger of losing his starting spot. I hope you grabbed this guy in your dynasty formats, he is going to pay off big in the coming seasons.
Conclusion: If you’re not in a 12 team QB superflex league, then there are surely better options out there as you set up a playoff run.
Ryan Tannehill: With Treylon Burks starting to break out, you’ll see this name alot, but should you pay attention?
What You”ll Hear: Treylon Burks, Treylon Burks, Treylon Burks. 4 Tds to 1 Int over the last 3. 19/20 Fantasy points in weeks10/11respectively…and did I mention Treylon Burks?
What They Don’t Say: Has not gone over 20 Fantasy points all season. Before weeks 10/11 his best Fantasy total was 14 back in week 4 and his best weekly finish is 8th against Las Vegas back in week 3. Oh, and 4/9 games below 200 yards.
Conclusion: Despite “What They Don’t Say”, they might be getting this one right because of that WR guy…I forget his name. Tannehill had indeed improved before this weeks 0 TD game. He’ll be throwing for sure playing catch-up to Philly's offense this week, and his schedule is set up nicely for 2 QB league playoff run.
The One They Forgot
Trevor Lawrence: Coming off a BYE, so he likely got overlooked.
What They Didn’t Say: 6 games at or above 19 Fantasy points, 5 top 10 weekly QB finishes, 16/6 TD/Int (plus 3 more rushing), and his 66.5% passing percentage is good enough for 11th among 10 game starters.
Conclusion: If you can find him, he is definitely worth adding, especially in a 2QB format. His numbers keep improving, Dallas is the only formidable defense left on his schedule (wk 15) and that pass defense (or lack thereof) will certainly keep him busy, and your points growing, trying to stay in the game.
Kyren Williams: The rookie is now the lead back…in a dismal offense
BLUF: He led in carries, with only 11. He was 2nd in rec yards, with only 25. This offense if terrible.
What You'll Hear: He has taken over as the lead back in every category. McVay loves him, and he has a great schedule against teams that are 26th or below against the run.
What They Don't Say: No Rams back has rushed more than 16 times, 61 yards, or multiple TDs ALL YEAR. As a team the Rams are 31st in Ru/yds on the season (877) and yds/carry (3.5). Williams himself averaged 3.2 last week. Horrible.
Conclusion: No, no, no!
Gus Edwards: Someone has to run the ball besides Jackson, but does that matter?
BLUF: In his 3 games: his highest number of carries is 16, yards is 66, and receptions is 0
What You'll Hear: He's improved from 50% of carries to 84%. Ravens have the best schedule for RBs over the remaining season. Will still get a 35%-40% split if Dobbins returns. (But wasn't his improvement just a positive talking pont?)
What They Don’t Say: Ok, maybe gloss iver is a better term for how they treat the fact that Dobbins can come back at literally any moment…cutting into the afore mentioned whopping 16 carries for 66 or less yards.
Conclusion: If you're so bad off to need Edwards, then you really don't need Edwards do you now?
Darrell Henderson Jr: Ok we're not even going to waste the time. He wasn't even the lead guy when Etienne went down. Stop it!
JaMycal Hasty: Nope, still not wasting the time here. Jacksonville is clearly going to operate a committee backfield if Etienne does go down at some point.
BTW, Etienne is reported to be FINE! What are people talking about here.
Who They Forgot: No one. I'm sorry but you need to hear it. There are no viable backs out there right now.
Not if Harris misses a week, the Steelers will use a committee.
Not with Hendo in Jacksonville. The Rams running game has never started going.
Not if Etienne goes down either.
Maybe someone got tired of waiting for Breece to come back and dropped them. Look for useavle options to get dropped by people making room for the RBs YOU now know you shouldn't be taking.
Yes! There are some actual finds here!
Zay Jones: If he is still available, then you should still have a shot at the playoffs in your league
BLUF: Over his last 4 games he has gone; 3/28, 5/40, 8/68, 11/145 (are we seeing the pattern here?)
What You’ll Hear: More targets (clearly), morr points (yup), you should have picked him up 2 weeks ago when he was in a bye (100%), and he his next 2 games are against bottom 12 pass defenses (nice).
What They Don't Say: Before last week he has only had 1 game above 15 Fantasy points. Has exactly 0 TDs in his last 7 games (1 for the season).
Conclusion: Everything is getting better in Jacksonville except the defense, which means plenty of opportunity for the offense to put up numbers. Check the shadow reports, but you should've already added this guy.
Michael Gallup: By default or by design, Gallup is Dallas' #2 pass catcher…for now.
BLUF: Gallups highest Fantasy total came in last week at 11, which was also his highest target/rec/yds totals at 8/5/63
What You'll Hear: He has passes Noah Brown for the WR2 spot. Dallas is on a tear right now. Gallup has great flex value.
What They Don't Say: Again, they'll mention it, but there may be a new #2 in town soon as the OBJ rumors continue to grow (a name I might expect to be in this article next week). And with Schultz outperforming Gallup Fantasywise in every week except 11, WR2 might not be saying too much.
Conclusion: Flex option might be the best term I saw this week for Gallup and certainly for deeper leagues. Watch the OBJ situation and "temper expectations" as Lamb, Schultz, and even Pollard are going to get the looks before Gallup shows up in Dak's progressions.
Parris Campbell: It's the Colts, so what are you actually hoping for here?
What You’ll Hear: Before this week, only lower than 5 targets once. "Double digit" Fantasy points in 4 of last 7.
What They Don't Say: Since JT came back in week 10, his targets/rec have gone from 9/7 to 6/5 and 3/2 ( are we seeing the patter here?). He has had more than 12 Fantasy points twice all year, once since week 8 and 1 TD since week 8.
Next up, Dallas' #1 pass defense, then a BYE week.
Conclusion: If you're looking ahead to your playoff schedule and weeks 15-16 when they play the Vikings and Chargers…you might want to consider if you're actually going to be in the playoffs grabbing a guy like Campbell this week.
Other Names You'll Hear:
Van Jefferson: Stay away from the Rams offense already!
Mack Hollins: But he's WR2! Is he though…
Donovan People's Jones: Smash "Yes!" but only for a flex spot. 12-15 Fantasy points 5 of the last 6 (6 of last 8) and Watson coming back. He's got as good a shot as anyone in Cleveland to benefit.
Don't let your next waiver add feel like that time you woke up next to that one person when you were really drunk that one night…you know you remember. See you next week!
Chris Fox is the host of Yards After the Catch and “The Trenches!” Fantasy Football Reality Competition show on YouTube. Chris’ knowledge base stems from over 30 years of Fantasy Sports experience. Find him at Armchair Athletics!
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