The Devil's Advocate
The Devil’s Advocate
Bio line: Chris Fox is the host of Yards After the Catch and “The Trenches!” Fantasy Football Reality Competition show on YouTube (handle @TheArmchairAthletics). Chris’ knowledge base stems from over 30 years of Fantasy Sports experience.
Congratulations! If you’re reading this then I will assume you still have something to play for, even if it is simply not trying to win the Toilet Bowl…again. You have read all the “must add” waiver articles for the week and now you need to know which players ACTUALLY can help versus which ones were just cut-n-pasted from the others. PLEASE STOP LISTENING TO EVERYONE JUST REPEAT THE OTHER GUY'S PICKS!
Welcome again to The Devil’s Advocate (and thank you!) where we break down all those contrarian picks (the ones you’ll see the most this week) and hopefully save you some time, and precious FAAB dollars, and get you some of the money!!! It’s playoff time, so we are going to hit it fast and hard (much like what happened to Brock Purdy on his opening drive)…let’s get after it then.
Oh, and if you’re wondering how we did last week (Yeah, we keep ourselves accountable because most others don’t) we went 12 for 12 last week and that equals 100% (you can check us: The Devil’s Advocate – Truth Serum Football).
*BLUF = Bottom Line Up Front
QBs: (You slide right on onto the playoffs and now nearly every stream-able QB is out or will be carrying an injury designation this week…figures)
Jared Goff vs Jets He is back again, but with a different projection
yahoo.com
BLUF: 24 Fantasy Points last week, 0 ints. This week he faces a Jets Def that has allowed the 2nd fewest passing TDs (12), are 6th in sacks (39), and have only allowed 1 QB (Burrow) to walk out with a passer rating over 100 or more than 250 pa/yds (Oh there’s more, keep reading)
What You’ll Hear: On the season he is QB 8 in pa/yds, QB 6 for QBR, QB 5 for TDs. He has finished with 18, 22, and 26 Fantasy points, 9 TDs (2nd), and 0 ints over the last 3 games! (Seriously impressive actually)
What They Don’t Say: That the last tough Pass Defense Goff faced was Dallas where he threw 0TS and 2 ints for 4pts. Also, in addition to the BLUF stats, only Burrow and Jackson have managed multiple TDs against the Jets, only 4 WRs have gone over 100 yards (only 6 over 35), and have only had 4 games without a pic.
Conclusion: Goff has Car and Chi for weeks 16/17, so he’ll be back here next week as an add…this week, stash him and make sure you have the chance to actually play in those weeks.
Mike White vs Det This guy will probably never leave this article but for different reasons each week.
newyorkjets.com
BLUF: Last week: 0Tds, 11 Fantasy Points, playing hurt, 61.4% QBR (24th wk 14)…but he has the Lions at home and a nice schedule coming up (Det, Jac, Sea, Mia)
What You’ll Hear: White is SO great, he is on fire, best QB the Jets have had in years, you should let him take your kid to prom! He has a nice schedule though (Det, Jac, Sea, Mia)
What They Don’t Say: 0 Tds, 2 pics, 11/19 fantasy points over the last 2 games.
Conclusion: We have been calling you off White for weeks with 100% accuracy (even after his big season intro) you should have listened.
Now keep listening and NOW go grab this guy! If you missed it White faces Det; 3rd most pass/TDs (21), 2nd highest yds/att and 7th lowest number of ints (9), Jac; 3rd most pass/Tds (21), 4 highest yds/att and 8th lowest in ints (8) and finally Sea; 5th most pass/TDs (19), 8th highest yds/att, and 10th fewest ints (10).
Brock Purdy vs Sea (Thurs): SF cannot win the injury game this season
hinews.org
BLUF: Kid understood the assignment and got it done, 3 TDs on 16 completions, 0 ints for 22 pts.
What You’ll Hear: QB 8 for week 14, 5TDs/1int over the last 2 games.
Short week, injured oblique, no Deebo.
What They Don’t Say: Only had to throw 21 times (16/21 for 189 yards) against a “not-good” TB defense (4th most pass TDs/gm) compared to 36 ru/atts for 209 yds. If you missed it, they had more yards on the ground than through the air.
Conclusion: Kyle knows what he is doing and how to manage his QBs. Sure, Purdy is a little banged up, but he played with it Sunday, he’ll play again Thursday. As we outlined with Mike White, Seattle is a good match-up on a short week. The 12th man will be in play however so I wouldn’t expect a point total over 20 and I would also expect a pic or two.
Week 16 he comes up against that Wash Def, however, so make sure you come back to The Advocate to find another streamable replacement.
Quick Take: Ryan Tannehill vs LAC
BLUF: Tannehill has scored 20 Fantasy points twice this season, and while the Chargers have given up 21 pass/TDs this year, they just stifled the Dolphins' “Air Raid-Esque” offense (shout out to the late Mike Leetch) and are tied for 7th with 9 ints.
Tannehill only has 3 ints on the year, so we’re saying you could play him, but temper your expectations.
Running Backs
Zonovan “Bam” Knight vs Det
rotoballer.com
BLUF: 17 for 71, 2 rec, 1 TD, 0 givebacks…15+ Fantasy points
What You'll Hear: He has stepped into the lead-back role, was out carried by Carter (by 2) but also clearly outperformed Carter.
What They Don't Say: Not much really, what you hear is what you have seen.
Conclusion: The Lions' defense has only allowed two 100-yard rushers all season, but let’s be honest, you pass, pass, pass against the Lions. We’re not going to say Knight isn’t worth a flier if you have the need, just don’t expect him to win your day for you…and that is kind of the point in the playoffs, isn’t it?
Jerrick McKinnon vs Hou: Receptions made this guy’s day, but he could be worth a flier vs Hou
Paradisepost.com
BLUF: 7/9 on receptions for 112, 2 TDs, and 34 PPR Fantasy pts. Houston gives up the 4th most rushing TDs in the league…but wait, McKinnon’s numbers are all reception based?
What You'll Hear: WOW, what a game! 2 double-digit weeks in a row! You must grab this guy, a playoff winner for sure!
What They Don’t Say: McKinnon doubled his TD total on the year and had half as many carries as Pacheco (13), who had 3 times as many rushing yards (70). His 14 pts last week was his highest all year before this week and Houston has allowed the fewest receiving TDs in the NFL (11).
Conclusion: McKinnon had a great day, took advantage of the opportunity, and finished as RB1… congratulations man, sincerely! Now they face a Texans team that is best in the league against the pass and 4th worst against the run. Since Reid clearly wants him involved, he might see another “double-digit” day (remember 10 and 11 are double digit numbers too) but we say, let someone else waste their waiver pick on McKinnon this week.
Raheem Mostert vs Buf: A starting RB goes down and you must look at the next man up
orlandosentinel.com
BLUF: Mostert had a 5 point day going 11/37 on the ground and 1/7 in the air.
What You'll Hear: IF Wilson Jr misses time (listed as day-to-day, watch to see if he practices) the Mostert will have a heavy role.
What They Don’t Say: 3 games all year over 11 Fantasy points, 1 game over 100-yards, Buf allows the 4th fewest Ru/TDs in the league. In their last match-up (wk 3) Mostert had 1 point.
Conclusion: IF Wilson doesn’t play, Mostert is in a secure starting role. Miami plays in Buffalo this time, however, and that run defense is one of the best in the league. Since he isn’t really big on receptions (18 all year) he may let you down in a game that is likely to be pass heavy.
Quick Take: Chubba Hubbard vs Pit:
Bonusbettor.com
We saw what Dobbins did to the Steelers, but that requires Hubbard to get snaps. Hubbard had 14 to Foreman’s 21 but did get 3 receptions and the TD to finish with 19 pts. Carolina gets a very winnable game against a banged-up Steelers team that doesn’t know who will play QB. Add in that Moore will be out, and Hubbard could have another decent share of the work to go along with a few more receptions and another likely TD.
“Stop it!” of the week:
Raiders backfield: Every week we have to do this. Jacobs will play, just stop it.
Wide Receivers: You’re going to see A LOT of names this week! If we didn’t tell you to grab them below, assume we see them as a “pass”. Hit us up on Twitter @ArmchairAlpha if you’d like to know why!
DJ Chark vs NYJ: He will be on EVERY list this week, but should he be?
draftkings.com
BLUF: Exactly what you wanted, 6/7-94-1 TD for 21 PPR points. Now he faces the Jets outside!
What You’ll Hear: 11 targets over the last 2 weeks, clear WR2, that every famous “double-digit points” (10, 15, 21) 3 weeks in a row!
What They Don't Say: As discussed above with Goff, the Jets' pass defense has allowed only 6 WRs to surpass 35 yards all season and have the 2nd fewest passing TDs (15) in the NFL.
Conclusion: We compared Chark to a box of chocolates last week. This week he is that one you bite into and then put back into the box hoping no one saw you do it. Juicy potential over the next 2 however, so if you can afford to not play him this week, he is worth the add.
Donovan People's Jones vs Bal: We told you last week, didn’t we?!
brownsnation.com
BLUF: 8/12-118 for 19 PPR points. No TDs yet, but the “12” targets should tell you something.
What You’ll Hear: Cooper is not 100% and DPJ garnered 12 targets as a result.
What They Don't Say: Baltimore has allowed the 5th fewest passing TD’s this season at 17 and is trying to win the division. They play the Saints after this week who sit at 16 passing TDs allowed.
Conclusion: You can’t help but factor Watson into the equation here who jumped from a 54% completion percentage to 61% and a passer rating of 53.4 to 79.1 after a week. Not stellar numbers for sure and they were playing from behind. The improvement is there, however, and it came against a formidable Bengal’s defense. As long as Watson continues to improve, and Cooper isn’t at 100%, expect DPJ to keep his numbers at a spot worth flexing.
Zay Jones vs Dal: We want this play SO bad, but…
bestodds.com
BLUF: 8 of 12 for 77 and the TD. A nice 22-point day. The next 3 matchups; are Dal, NYJ, and Hou. We love Jones, but he is out for the rest of your Fantasy season.
What You'll Hear: 12 targets show how much Lawrence wants to get Zay the ball and the TD demonstrates the Jags' faith in him when in the Red Zone.
What They Don't Say: Jones plays primarily in the slot, so he gets a lot of those short yardage, and progression looks. Dallas ranks 3rd in passing TDs allowed and 5th in Ints.
Conclusion: The issue is with the matchups. Lawrence hasn’t thrown a pick in 5 games, however, excluding Baltimore, he also didn’t face a defense that has more than 9 ints all season. In games against defenses with 10 picks or more, Lawrence has thrown 5 to only 3 TDs. Having Dallas (11) the Jets (12) and the Texans (10) over the final 3 doesn’t really inspire a lot of confidence.
Oh, how did Jones do in those games? 0 TDs and 18 points overall.
Other Names You'll Hear:
Michael Gallup: Great matchup with Jacksonville coming up, but Philly after that. WR2 but still the 4th look at best and now Hilton comes in. TD dependant, deep stream only.
Isaiah McKenzie: Has had more than 5 targets only once since week 7’s BYE. Ask us again next week when the Bills play Chicago.
- Williams: Honestly might be the best option given the stats we have shown you regarding the Jets' defense. He is still a pass this week for Fantasy. Maybe a super cheap DFS fill?
Did we miss someone? Bring all your questions to Yards After the Catch, LIVE every Tuesday night at 830pm est (https://www.facebook.com/TheArmchairAthletics) and we will answer them all! See you next week!
Post your questions or comments right here, @ArmchairAlpha on Twitter, or The Armchair Athletics Facebook page too! Don’t miss TSF’s own Jordan Thomas on “The Trenches!”, YouTube handle @TheArmchairAthletics