Week #3 Waiver Watch Of Truth
Welcome back to the Waiver Watch of Truth! Week #2 was a wild one and there’s plenty of action to be had on the wire.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami – If you did not scoop Tua from the wire last week, there is certainly going to be more competition for him this week. Tua was on fire Sunday in a fourth quarter comeback against Baltimore – throwing for 469 yards and 6 TDs. It would be foolish to expect that level of production every week, but it at least provides proof that Tua carries a high ceiling this year with the deadly combo of Hill and Waddle making his life easy. Temper expectations this upcoming week as Miami hosts Buffalo, but from Week 4 onward Tua gets an extremely soft schedule against CIN, NYJ, MIN, PIT, DET, and CHI.
Carson Wentz, Washington – Still only rostered in 51% of leagues, I understand how hard it is to trust Carson Wentz. We’ve seen him put together a nice string of games only to completely fall on his face for most of the season. So far, he hasbeen white hot throwing over 300 yards and 3+ TDs in two soft matchups against Jacksonville and Detroit. Week three poses a much harder test hosting Philadelphia, but DAL, TEN, and CHI afterwards looks juicy. Wentz has an elite collection of pass catchers with the resurgence of Curtis Samuel and a strong start from rookie first round pick Jahan Dotson. There might be QBs with better matchups this week, but if you can stash Wentz, he should provide QB1 value during the softer stretch.
Jared Goff, Detroit – Goff had a great day Sunday throwing for 256 yards and 4 TDs against a porous Washington defense. Although Washington might field one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season, Goff was solid in Week 1 against Philly as well. We’ve seen competent QB play from Goff for a few years in LA, and the Lions quietly have an explosive set of playmakers including St. Brown, Hockenson and Swift. Goff has a favorable matchup the next two weeks against MIN and SEA, making Goff a strong streaming candidate for the next few weeks.
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh/Malik Willis, Tennessee – The first two QBs selected in the 2022 NFL draft might be getting closer to starting. I would prioritize Malik Willis after Ryan Tannehill’s horrendous showing against Buffalo on Monday night. Willis took over for Tannehill in that game, and while I do not expect Willis to start Week 3, another ugly game or a few losses in a row could trigger Mike Vrabel to make the switch. Expectation is Willis will be extremely raw, as seen by his debut, but provides elite rushing ability which always provides a solid floor for mobile QBs. The Steelers were gifted a win in Week 1 against the Bengals and dropped their latest contest to the Patriots where the offense struggled to get going, totaling only 243 yards and seventeen points. If the offense continues to struggle and Pittsburgh loses a handful in the coming weeks, Pickett could get the nod soon.
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco – a devastating injury to Trey Lance will end his season, opening the door for Jimmy G to resume the starting QB role for the 49ers. The 49ers have had success with Jimmy under center over the last few seasons and I expect similar results for 2022. Garoppolo provides high end QB2/low end QB1 value with Aiyuk and Samuel at his disposal and will get a boost once George Kittle returns. I would roll with one of the above QBs in the short term as the 49ers take on DEN and LAR the next two weeks, but then the schedule opens against CAR, ATL and KC.
Deeper Adds & Stashes: Marcus Mariota, Atlanta – Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Jordan Mason, San Francisco – After getting exactly zero work in Week 2, you would not expect to see Mason here again, but a recent report says Tyrion Davis-Price is dealing with a high-ankle sprain and will miss 4-6 weeks. That leaves Jeff Wilson and Jordan Mason as the only two RBs currently on the roster. The 49ers also have veteran Marlon Mack on the practice squad, and I imagine he gets called up given the rash of injuries at the position. However, it makes Mason a speculative add as Shanahan typically uses two RBs on game day, and TDP just got fourteen carries last week. If Mason slides into that role and gets around fourteen carries each week, he is worth the add as a FLEX play. Add in that Wilson has not been the model of health, Mason should be added.
Raheem Mostert, Miami – After taking a backseat to Chase Edmonds in Week 1, Mostert was given the bulk of the RB work in Week 2’s wild win over Baltimore. Mostert received fourteenopportunities and will finish as a low-end RB2 this week. While we might see this backfield flip flop each week, it is worth adding Mostert at the end of your bench to see if the trend continues. Miami has become a high-scoring offense, so it does not hurt to own the potential lead RB in that situation.
Eno Benjamin/Darrell Williams, Arizona – James Conner left Week 2 early with an injury, but early reports say it is notserious and should not be a long-term issue. Still, we have seen Conner get banged up before and even if it is not a long-termproblem, we could still see Conner miss a small amount of time. I would prefer to grab Darrel Williams, as he got most of the work when Conner left, plus Williams has shown capable at the NFL level as recently as last year. The most likely scenario is a split between these two guys making both useless for fantasy, but worth stashing one in case Kingsbury shows a preference.
Deeper Adds & Stashes: Brian Robinson, Washington – Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta – Jerrick McKinnon, Kansas City – Marlon Mack, San Francisco
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets – The 10th overall pick in the 2022 draft exploded in a wild comeback victory, going off for eight catches, 102 yards and 2 TDs. Wilson certainly will notprovide these numbers weekly, but the important stat to takeaway is the twenty-two targets Wilson has received through 2 weeks, by far the most on the team. Wilson has taken over as the #1 WR in New York, and Joe Flacco loves to throw it his way. A major question arises when QB Zach Wilson returns to action in a few weeks, if Wilson will receive the same targets, but for the next few weeks Wilson is a FLEX/low-end WR2 with Flacco under center.
Chris Olave, New Orleans – After a quiet Week 1, Olave was a magnet, soaking up thirteen targets from Jameis Winston. Managers who look at the box score of games might see fivecatches for eighty yards and pass over Olave, but the thirteentargets show Olave is slowly working his way up in the offense, and he is receiving high value targets as well. Olave recorded over three hundred air yards in week two, meaning Winston is sending the ball deep to Olave often. Rookie WRs tend to take a few weeks to truly breakout, and Olave feels like a typical mid-season breakout who could work his way up to WR2 status with steady volume.
Jahan Dotson/Curtis Samuel, Washington – These 2 are most likely owned in your leagues, as they were hot waiver adds last week, but it is worth double checking if Dotson and Samuel might have slipped through the cracks. Dotson found the end-zone again in Week 2, and while he might not be a high volume WR, receiving five targets in each game, he is a favorite red zone target of Wentz. Some managers questioned if Curtis Samuel’s week one production was a fluke, but he received tenopportunities in Week 2and turned it into ninety-nine total yards and a TD. Samuel looks to be a big part of the offense, and if he stays healthy, should be a nice FLEX play for the season.
Nelson Agholor/Jakobi Meyers, New England – There is a high chance both New England WRs are available in your league, with Meyers only 40% rosters, and Agholor a measly 3% rostered. The New England offense was a nightmare in Week 1, but QB Mac Jones looked a bit better in Week 2. Meyers played the role he always has as a high-volume slot receiver, soaking up thirteen targets for nine catches and ninety-five yards. Agholor will certainly see much less volume than Meyers each week butprovides higher TD upside. If Jones continues to build on Week 2 and the New England offense progresses, Meyers and Agholor could be decent FLEX plays, preferring Meyers in PPR and Agholor in other formats.
Deeper Adds & Stashes: Treylon Burks, Tennessee – Russell Gage, Tampa Bay – Michael Gallup, Dallas – Rondale Moore, Arizona
Gerald Everett, Los Angeles – Similar to last week, I do not see much available worth burning a high priority or much FAAB on outside of Gerald Everett. Everett hauled in six catches for seventy-one yards and has shown two weeks in a row he is a favorite target for Justin Herbert. If he is somehow available in your league, and you do not own Kelce, Andrews, or Waller, I believe Everett will be a set and forget TE for the remainder of the season.
Deeper Adds & Stashes: Hayden Hurst, Cincinnati – Robert Tonyan, Green Bay – Logan Thomas, Washington – Mike Gesicki, Miami
Los Angeles Chargers – My absolute #1 priority for DST streamers is the Chargers this week, and they are worth burning a high waiver priority, or 10+% of FAAB budget. Instead of spending resources each week, you can play the Chargers’ DST with confidence over the next several weeks, as they are set to face JAX, HOU, CLE, DEN, SEA and ATL over the next 6 weeks. JAX, HOU, SEA and ATL have been plus matchups this season, and LA should be heavily favored in each of those. The DEN offense has looked atrocious this season and should not be feared until further proven. CLE poses the worst matchup during this slate, but Brissett limits the ceiling of their offense. Grab the Chargers’ DST and set and forget for the next several weeks.
Cleveland Browns/Minnesota Vikings – If you miss our on LA this week, there are not a ton of other options I absolutely love that are most likely available, so Cleveland and Minnesota are two lower-level options that I think have a chance at a decent day. Cleveland are 3.5-point home favorites against the Steelers in a game with a 40.5-point Over/Under, one of the lowest on the week. The Steelers’ offense has looked rough this season, so Cleveland should be able to finish middle of the pack this week. Minnesota hosts Detroit as a 5-point home favorite, however they would be my last option given the high Over/Under of 50.5 in this game. Detroit’s offense has been explosive this year, and they have not been the same old offense you want to target with your DST.
Good luck and as always, stay true.