Week #4 Waiver Watch Of Truth
Week #4 Waiver Watch of Truth
Welcome back to waiver watch my fellow Truth Serum members for week 4. This week is a lot more difficult than I really expected to be; some players I predicted last week either didn’t pan out or injuries suddenly thrust players into the spotlight that I didn’t necessarily see as being productive as they were. However, as always it is important to remember that all of this is an attempt to predict the unpredictable and unfortunately the waiver wire will be a bit bare this week compared to past ones’ due to fewer players having break out games. So with that in mind here are my recommended pick ups for week 4.
Jacoby Brissett, 6% rostered on Sleeper
I will start with one of my mistakes from last week. I recommended against starting Brissett unless you were in the direst of circumstances, that is still the correct decision in my opinion, but I will also admit that Jacoby had a pretty decent fantasy showing against a tough Raiders defense in Las Vegas. It doesn’t get any easier for Brissett next week when he faces the Colts but he did complete 32 of 49 passes, threw no picks or TDs but did have a rushing score and 37 extra yards on the ground. It isn’t a great showing but from a fantasy perspective it was a respectable 19.30 points in PPR scoring. Unless you are in a super flex or 2QB league I still believe there are better options available but in a 2QB with injuries being what they are Brissett might be worth picking up at least for a few weeks while Tua is out.
Taylor Heinicke, 13% rostered on Sleeper
This is somewhat of an oversight on my part, I kept listing Heinicke on waiver watch under Honorable mentions but forgot to do a write up on him, (well except in my QB sleeper article from early postseason last year, oops). However, he definitely deserves more than a glancing mention and should have probably been given one last week. Heinicke continues to prove the doubters wrong, he was extremely efficient against a very talented Bills’ secondary. He completed 14 of his 24 attempts for 212 yards, 2 TDs , 2 INTs, and a 21 rushing yards and rushing TD as well. Yes, the interceptions are obviously concerning, however he was also playing against one of the best teams in the AFC and his next game is against the lowly Falcons. He should make a much better showing next week.
Sam Darnold, 30% rostered on Sleeper
Yet another QB who has ‘escaped’ the Coach Adam Gase failure show and has found success away from him, much like Tannehill did by going the Titans. Basically it might be a good bet at this point that if Gase ever lands another head coaching job watch where his QBs get traded to once away from him, it’s a good bet they will suddenly become fantasy relevant at that point. Darnold is proving that despite losing Christian McCaffery to a hamstring sprain and even showed off his own rushing ability picking up 2 rushing scores while beating the Texans on Thursday night. Add in going 23 of 34 through the air for 304 yards and Darnold looked pretty impressive that night. Next week he takes on the Cowboys in what could be a high scoring, pass happy game that will be helpful for all the fantasy players involved. If he is still available, I highly recommend you grab him as soon as possible off waivers.
Daniel Jones (51% rostered)
Derek Carr (50% rostered)
Chuba Hubbard, 39% rostered on Sleeper
Ironically just last week, I claimed that clear handcuff backs lack fantasy value and yet this week two different players made the waiver wire of truth this week. Hubbard will move up the depth chart with McCaffrey out for a few weeks at least but it is far from clear how effective he will be. Keep in mind that against the Texans he had a 55% snap share while getting 52 yards on 11 attempts and 3 receptions on 5 targets for another 27 yards. Missing in those yardage totals are any trips to the end zone against a relatively weak opponent. Proceed with caution if picking up Hubbard and much like Mike Davis, who filled in for CMC last year, don’t expect McCaffery level production because that isn’t going to happen.
Alexander Mattison, 71% rostered on Sleeper
I know, I am breaking my cardinal rule about not talking about players that are over 50% rostered. However, nearly all of this addition came this morning or just before the Viking-Seahawks game was to be played. Mattison remains a useful handcuff behind Dalvin Cook and he proved his worth again in this spot starts. Week 3, he turned 26 attempts into 112 yards and 8 targets into 6 receptions in the passing game for 59 yards. Again a lot of his value depends on how much time Cook will miss and if Mattison can sustain his production. Last season Mattison had only one good start in 2020 while Cook was dealing with an injury so temper expectations if you go chasing Mattison.
Cordarrelle Patterson, 65% rostered on Sleeper
I agonized a bit over the decision to include Patterson again and not Peyton Barber. However, I believe Barber was more of an aberration then a pattern and he has to contend with both Drake and Josh Jacobs. Patterson continues to impress and he was on the field just 3 fewer snaps then what Mike Davis received and while his rushing totals were abysmal his usage as a receiver are what really matter, he turned 7 targets into 6 receptions for 82 yards and 20 more on the ground. He is more efficient than Davis despite being on the field for fewer snaps. If he is still available in your leagues, you need to pick him up now before it’s too late.
Running Back Honorable Mentions
Peyton Barber (7% rostered)
Zach Moss (62% rostered)
Ty Johnson (16% rostered)
Emmanuel Sanders, 36% rostered on Sleeper
Emmanuel Sanders is my headline player for this week but like a lot of players on this list, there is a big caveat. If Cole Beasley is available, (which is far less likely since he is rostered in twice as many leagues), you should grab him, not Sanders. Yes, Sanders had two scores and hauled in 5 receptions on 6 targets but Beasley had 11 receptions on 13 targets. On the whole, Diggs and Beasley are who you want to own but Sanders will undoubtedly benefit from defenses focusing on the other two but any share of this impressive passing attack will have value but don’t expect 2 TD outings as much in the future.
Hunter Renfrow, 21% rostered on Sleeper
Renfrow has been a reliable target for Derek Carr over the first 3 weeks hauling in at least 5 receptions in all 3 games and posting better than 50 yards in each game. In Week 3 Renfrow had 5 receptions on 6 targets for 77 yards and a TD. Next week is a potentially high scoring game with the Chargers on Monday night so all the Raiders offensive weapons will need to be sharp to keep up with Herbert, Ekeler, K. Allen, and Mike Williams. If Renfrow is available, he will be a valuable piece to at the very least stash on your bench or a potential flex play for upcoming bye weeks and injuries.
AJ Green, 30% rostered on Sleeper
I literally think Truth Serum Football should just create a pool or hat bet to see which Cardinal receiver will light up the fantasy scoreboard in any given week. Last week it was Moore, and Kirk has been pretty reliable as well and then you add in DeAndre Hopkins and this is an extremely potent air raid attack. This week Green got in on the action more so then the previous two weeks, turning 6 targets into 5 receptions for 112 yards. My advice at this point is just make sure you own a Cardinals receiver if you have a deep enough bench, basically any or all of them can provide a viable fantasy outing on any given Sunday.
Wide Receiver Honorable Mentions
Tim Patrick (36% rostered)
Sammy Watkins (38% rostered)
Tyler Conklin, 8% rostered on Sleeper
My tight end selections this week are both big risks, big reward plays for next week. They could be great or they could put up big fat zeros. The first Conklin had a great day Sunday against the Seahawks catching 7 of 8 targets for 70 yards plus a TD. However, with such a diverse and talented passing attack for the Vikings replicating such success may be difficult for the 4th year tight end. I recommend adding but you should probably wait and see what happens when Dalvin Cook returns, some of those valuable red zone targets may get lost upon his return but it’s worth monitoring and having a good tight end streamer, which Conklin may become.
Dawson Knox, 11% rostered
Knox is clearly a TD dependent waiver add, obviously the Bills have an impressive offense and Knox is more than capable of being involved but his usage so far doesn’t make that appear likely. He has a TD in the last two games but was only targeted a handful of times in each and with Diggs, Beasley, and Sanders around, not to mention the rushing and receiving ability of the Bills running backs and Josh Allen himself. That is a big bet you are risking by starting Knox, I do think he should be added but temper your expectations for the time being and see if he becomes more involved as the season unfolds.
Tight End Honorable Mentions
Evan Engram (43% rostered)
Gerald Everett (35% rostered)
Good Luck to Everyone and as always Stay True
P.S. Mike ‘Tags’ Tagliere a popular and well known fantasy football podcaster and writer died this past week from Covid-19. Please keep him and his family in your thoughts and prayers. I never had the honor of meeting Mike but guys like him, Jordan Thomas, and Joey Fickle helped convince me to start writing stuff like this for the wider fantasy football community so I owe a deep debt to guys like Tags for convincing me to speak up and share my passion. If Tags inspired you or you just want to help his family, FantasyPros has set up a GoFundMe campaign to help his family so please feel free to contribute if you can.