Week #4 Waiver Watch Of Truth
Welcome back to The Waiver Watch Of Truth!
Let’s dive right in.
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff, Detroit (46% rostered) – I mentioned Goff last week in this section and while he did not deliver a wild performance in Week 3, he was once again solid with 277 yards and a TD. Goff plays Seattle at home this week, which is a plus matchup, and with his array of weapons healthy, Goff should continue to provide a solid floor with Top 8-10 upside. He’s been very efficient this year with 7 TDs and only 2 INTs and a dinged-up DeAndre Swift could put the ball in Goff’s hands a bit more often.
Jameis Winston, New Orleans (46% rostered) – Reports of a broken back surfaced heading into Week 2, and Jameis Winston certainly played like a player in pain. He was one of the worst QBs in Week 2 but bounced back as the QB14 in Week 3. This week the Saints host the Vikings who have a beatable secondary and this game has a decent Over/Under at 46.5. Alvin Kamara is hopefully getting healthier, and the emergence of Chris Olave gives this offense firepower which should continue to put Jameis in the Top 15 of QBs each week.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville (50% rostered) – The generational talent, #1 overall pick fell flat on his face in 2021 as the Jacksonville Jaguars were a complete disaster from top to bottom. Head Coach Urban Meyer lasted only one season, and Superbowl winning Doug Pederson has taken over, and has Jacksonville headed in the right direction. Lawrence took advantage of a banged-up Chargers’ defense this week, popping off for 25 points. He faces a much tougher test this week against Philly, so while he might not be someone you want to start in Week 4, he should be added at the end of the bench and see if continues to grow into the elite QB everyone expected. After Philly he gets attractive matchups against HOU, IND and NYG.
Running Backs
Khalil Herbert, Chicago (48% rostered)/Alexander Mattison, Minnesota (64% rostered) – If you are in a sharper league, the odds are high that both these guys are already owned, however make sure you double check the wire to see if they are out there. Both starting running backs, David Montgomery, and Dalvin Cook, both got injured during their games on Sunday. Early reports on both backs are that the injuries are minor and both players seem day to day, but this is a good reminder to stash high upside handcuffs. Herbert and Mattison had both been given opportunities to be the primary ball carrier last year, and both performed pretty well. If Cook or Montgomery miss time at all this season, Mattison or Herbert would instantly enter the RB2 conversation and would make solid starts for most rosters.
Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta (33% rostered) – This is more of a stash as I would not put Allgeier in any lineups yet, but we have seen two straight weeks where Allgeier is the clear #2 behind Cordarelle Patterson. While it’s a small difference, Allgeier also improved his snap count from Week 2 to Week 3 from 31% to 37% and has gotten 7 and 10 opportunities the last 2 weeks respectively. I put Allgeier in a separate tier from Herbert and Mattison because Patterson is looking great and did not get banged up on Sunday, so those two guys would be first priority by far. But if you are not able to grab one of them, Allgeier is a nice stash to hold and see if Patterson continues his emergence.
Samaje Perine, Cincinnati (9% rostered) – Joe Mixon is another stud RB who got nicked up on Sunday, but again reports point to a minor issue since Mixon, and Head Coach Zac Taylor have said Mixon will be “good to go” for their Thursday night matchup with Miami. Perine received the most work of the season, garnering eleven opportunities and a 34% snap share, both by far his highest this year. On a short week where Mixon is already dealing with an issue, we could see the Bengals dial up some extra opportunities for Perine. I think you could roll the dice as a FLEX option this week if you are pretty desperate. Even if you are not looking to start Perine, he makes a nice stash on the end of the bench since he is clearly the #2 in Cincy.
Craig Reynolds, Detroit (0% rostered)/Trestan Ebner, Chicago (0% rostered) – Here are two deeper league ideas that will most likely be available for free on Wednesday morning. DeAndre Swift has been dealing with an ankle injury that has kept him limited since Week 1, and we know David Montgomery left Week 3’s game early and did not return. Reynolds saw a decent amount of run this week, and we have a decent sample size now of Dan Quinn preferring to use two backs during games. If Swift misses time or continues to be limited, we could see Jamaal Williams and Craig Reynolds shoulder most of the load. Williams is obviously the preferred back, but he is highly owned, so Reynolds could be a stash for deeper leagues. Similarly in Chicago, we have seen Khalil Herbert share work with David Montgomery this season, and if Montgomery misses time, Ebner might siphon a solid amount of opportunities from Herbert.
Wide Receivers
Romeo Doubs, Green Bay (39% rostered) – During the off-season, rookie WR Romeo Doubs was generating by far the most buzz at Packers’ camp. Beat reporters were constantly highlighting plays from camp however certain narratives seemingly held back Doubs from getting drafted higher in fantasy this season. He was a fourth-round pick, selected after teammate Christian Watson in the same draft, and QB Aaron Rodgers has notoriously funneled the ball to familiar targets and players he trusts. In Week 3 against Tampa Bay, Rodgers seemingly trusted Doubs as he targeted him eight times, with Doubs catching all 8 for 73 yards and a touchdown. While the stat line is attractive, the most notable improvement for Doubs was his playing time, playing 89% of the snaps compared to 57% and 37% the last two weeks. If Doubs is going to be on the field and earn 8+ targets a game from Rodgers, he could instantly start to deliver WR2 value.
Zay Jones, Jacksonville (14% rostered) – The Jaguars quickly became the butt of plenty of jokes after spending an absurd amount of money in free agency, most notably giving WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones contracts well above expected market value. Jacksonville is laughing last now, as Kirk and Jones have now become reliable fantasy options. New coach Doug Pederson has had a major impact on the Jaguars’ offense, and sophomore Trevor Lawrence is finally playing like the #1 overall pick he was expected to be. The Jaguars offense is rolling right now, and it seems Lawrence is capable of providing 2 options at WR. Christian Kirk has been elite this season, scoring 17+ in all 3 games so far, and now Zay Jones has joined the party with 11 targets in Week 3. Since Kirk is clearly the alpha, Jones will have some disappointing weeks sprinkled in, but you can stash him as a decent FLEX option going forward.
Russell Gage, Tamp Bay (49% rostered) – With Tampa’s top three options, Evans, Godwin, and Julio, all out of the line-up in Week 3, Tampa got their money’s worth out of their off-season signing. Gage saw thirteen targets, hauling in twelve for eighty-seven yards and a score. Gage is undoubtedly the #1 option with the Top 3 out of the line-up, and at this point he might be ahead of Julio on the depth chart. Mike Evans was suspended in Week 3, so expect him back in Week 4, but another week without Godwin could leave Gage with a useable stat line in a matchup with shoot out potential against Kansas City.
Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles (41% rostered) – I talked about Palmer last week and he came through with six catches for ninety-nine yards, finishing as a Top 25 WR in Week 3. He has benefitted the most from Keenan Allen’s absence, and if Allen remains sidelined, Palmer looks like a solid FLEX option for PPR leagues. Los Angeles has a soft matchup next week against Houston and should bounce back after getting embarrassed at home against Jacksonville.
Tight Ends
David Njoku, Cleveland (37% rostered) – I would expect this past week to be Njoku’s best game of the season, so do not add him expecting 20+ points each week. He was a complete dud the first two weeks, and that is the nature of the streaming tight end. It’s a crap shoot each week who will score and blow up, while most of the time the mid-low l. l tight end options provide duds. At least Njoku has now shown a capable ceiling, and we came into this season analyzing Brissett’s propensity to hyper target tight ends. Perhaps this continues to be a trend and Njoku gets hyper targeted which we expected coming in.
Logan Thomas, Washington (39% rostered) – Thomas was a popular waiver wire add last week and left managers disappointed in Week 3 with only two catches for five yards. This is commonplace for streaming tight ends, as they are extremely unpredictable and have wildly low floors. Guaranteed Thomas gets dropped in a decent percentage of leagues, and if so, it makes sense to grab him if you do not own Kelce, Andrews, or Waller. Thomas received 5+ targets each of the first two weeks, and faced a tough Philly defense this past contest. The schedule opens a bit as he faces some incredibly attractive matchups over the next several weeks.
Tyler Conklin, New York Jets (29% rostered) – I was skeptical of Conklin as I was making waiver decisions last week, especially since teammate CJ Uzomah was active in Week 3. Even with Uzomah around, Conklin received eight targets and will seemingly finish as a top 10 tight end this week, for the second time this season. Conklin has gotten 7+ targets in each game so far, and if the volume continues, will provide at minimum a decent floor for a streaming tight end.
D/ST
Green Bay Packers (40% rostered) – After getting carved up by Kirk Cousins in Week 1, the Packers defense has buckled down the last two weeks against Chicago and Tampa Bay, allowing 10 and 12 points in each game, respectively. Chicago is a bottom three offense and Tampa Bay was missing their top 3 WRs, so the jury is still out if Green Bay’s defense is legit or not. But this week they get another juicy matchup at home as 5-point favorites against New England. This matchup was attractive with Mac Jones in the lineup, since the New England offense has been rough this season, but Jones suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 3 which will most likely sideline him a few weeks. This New England offense now with a back up QB becomes a smash spot this week for the Packers’ DST.
Los Angeles Chargers (71% rostered) – I touted them last week and suffered severe disappointment in Week 3 as Jacksonville came to town and carved up the Chargers’ defense for thirty-eight points. I’m going back to the well one more time since the Chargers are 7.5-point favorites on the road against Houston. While the Jags offense has been sneakily ascending this season, the Texans look t. e one of the worst offenses in the league. This should be a nice bounce back spot for the Chargers.
Philadelphia Eagles (43% rostered) – Philly’s defense is the one most likely owned in leagues, but double check and add them this week if available. They have been elite this season and get the Jaguars at home this week. I just talked about the Jaguars being an ascending team, but the Philly offense is miles ahead of the Chargers. You can trust them this week against Jacksonville.
Dallas Cowboys (50% rostered) – Dallas was an elite fantasy option in 2021 and have regressed back to middle of the league this year. They haven’t been the elite unit of last year but haven’t been a liability either. In Week 4 they are 5-point home favorites in a divisional matchup against Washington. Carson Wentz started the season on fire the first two weeks but showed his true colors in a tough matchup against Philly in Week 3. I think Dallas will continue to give Wentz trouble and we will see some vintage Wentz turnovers.
Good luck on the wire all and as always, stay true!